Facebook’s Future Success: Why I Wouldn’t Bet On It

First off I use Facebook. I was one of the early users back a few years ago when it was only for college kids. Way back when you had to request to have your school added, I requested my school be added. Back then Facebook was brilliant, it let me connect and share things with my friends in a way that we never could before. It was brilliant. It had all the things that you needed, it was hip, exclusive, and a darn effective tool. All was good with the world. They were adding great new stuff like AJAX and photo albums, yes I remember when they weren’t there and you were like man they really get it. I guess it didnt hurt they “they” were us, young adults who understood what other young adults wanted.

And then Facebook and its CEO Mark Zuckerberg made a series of terrible mistakes. First they opened Facebook up to the world, a bad move in my opinion because they lost that feeling of exclusivity if you will. I know they wanted to expand their user base to say they were competing with MySpace on a user level that they would never reach if they stayed with their college only model. The thing that the folks at Facebook failed to really understand is that they didnt need to compete with MySpace they already had the prime 18-25 market that advertisers love locked up.

Second, they began to add all these “cool” applications. Ok, so a few applications are ok but a gazillion and you really got a problem. I know that they don’t make people use them but when I have to scroll for thirty seconds just to get to someone’s wall to leave a “happy birthday”, you start to just be like forget it. The applications are getting out of hand or rather the usuage of them. Maybe thats not completely Facebook’s fault but they enabled it so they are responsible.

The last and perhaps most damaging factor is that Facebook sold their soul for the money. Now I know what you will say, that Facebook hasn’t sold itself yet but thats what they are planning on. That’s why they are on this whole its a “platform” kick. What Facebook has really done is dilute its brand to the people that matter most. I am officially saying that while I still use Facebook to keep up with friends, I no longer use it the way I used to, it is simply no longer “cool”. Another big problem Facebook has is its affinity to invade or comprimise the privacy of its users with little or no notice. Whether it is the newsfeeds telling all your business or the new Beacon system its getting to be to much. Up to this point users have forgiven them for these lapses but I think their days are numbered. Even the most patient folks run out of it. Because if they increase their registered users ten fold, but lose the interest of that target 18-25 age group then they have lost most of their appeal to companies. I already don’t pay any attention to the ads on Facebook, mostly because I simply hate being marketed to that way, Facebook used to be a place you could get away from all that. What made Facebook so great is that it was NOT MySpace. Facebook has gotten away from its core compentencies and I suggest that they find there way back soon.

In the end, like I said Facebook may see its user numbers increase greatly in the near future but as far as a cool or relevant thing to be a part of for the 18-25 age group which advertisers covet so much, their relevance is diminishing. I have never once seen an ad on Facebook that prompted me to buy something. I predict the demise of Facebook as a relevant place to be in the next 2-5 years, they are alienating their users and its going to come back and bite them in a big way. For all those companies out there looking to acquire Facebook which last time I checked was valuing itself at a little over 1.5 billion dollars I would think twice. MySpace selling to NewsCorp wasnt that big a deal because MySpace was already open to everyone but Facebook had niche’ and they gave it away. Well thats all for now but remember where you heard it first, on Zo Knows Tech. Thanks.